The QB22 Project
I am excited to announce a new project that I will be debuting this season, entitled The QB22 Project.
The QB22 Project is a new initiative that I have been contemplating for a couple of years, and I finally started working on it this summer. It is a comprehensive model aimed at evaluating QB performance during their first 22 starts in the NFL. The primary objective is to offer an early and dependable assessment of a quarterback's potential based on their early career performances. By focusing on a QB's first 22 starts, the model will aim to capture a crucial period in a quarterback's development where patterns and indicators of future success or failure often begin to emerge.
Why 22 starts instead of a different number?
The 22-start benchmark is selected for its balanced sample size, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of a quarterback's early career performance without unnecessary delay. (The name also plays with the ‘all-22’ film as film grades will be incorporated into this project.) By this point, a quarterback has typically encountered a variety of defensive schemes, game situations, and pressure scenarios, providing valuable insight into their adaptability and consistency. However, in order to qualify, the QB must have 22 starts within their first three seasons, which averages out to be roughly 7 per season. Some rookies sit out for a period of time during their rookie season, so the 22 starts will often span a mixture of their first year and their sophomore season when we can expect a potential jump in development. This period is typically a crucial phase where fundamental traits such as decision-making, pocket presence, and accuracy begin to solidify. Often, by the 22-game mark, we can assess whether a quarterback has started to overcome initial struggles, sustained early success, or exhibited concerning patterns that may endure.
Compared to other thresholds, 22 starts provide more useful and timely information. Having fewer starts, such as 15 or 20, may not capture enough of the ups and downs that define a QB’s learning curve. This could potentially lead to evaluations that are biased by early performance spikes or struggles. On the other hand, waiting until 25 or more starts might not offer significantly more insights but could delay important decisions for NFL teams and fantasy football managers. The 22-game mark is early enough to still influence roster moves, contract decisions, and fantasy team adjustments, making it a sweet spot for actionable takeaways.
What goes into this project?
The project will analyze a range of traditional stats, advanced metrics, situational performance data, and consistency measures. This comprehensive approach allows for a nuanced understanding of a QB’s strengths and weaknesses, including aspects like accuracy, decision-making, efficiency, performance under pressure, and ability to generate positive outcomes in various game situations.
The project will produce a letter grade for each quarterback, ranging from A+ to F. This grading scale will be based on a composite score derived from the results of various metrics and data points. The letter grading system will provide a clear, intuitive, and easily understandable evaluation.
A+ to A-: Elite or near-elite performance, indicating a QB who has shown consistent ability and potential to be a long-term starter or star in the NFL.
B+ to B-: Above-average performance, suggesting a quarterback with potential to be a solid starter, showing good decision-making, accuracy, and situational awareness.
C+ to C-: Average performance, typically signaling a QB who may have some strong points but lacks consistency or has notable weaknesses.
D+ to D-: Below-average performance, indicating a QB who struggles in key areas and may not have the traits or consistency to be a long-term starter.
F: Poor performance across multiple metrics, suggesting that the QB is unlikely to succeed as an NFL starter based on the current data.
How will this help fantasy football managers make decisions?
Fantasy football managers often need to make decisions on young QBs who haven’t yet solidified their roles (Bryce Young and Zach Wilson entering their second season is a great example). By using The QB22 Project’s grading system, managers can identify which quarterbacks are likely to become reliable fantasy starters and which may be risky or underperforming options.
With letter grades, fantasy managers can quickly assess the value of a QB, making it easier to decide on holding, trading away, or trading for a player. For example, a QB graded as an “A” or “B” might be a strong candidate to acquire or hold onto, while a “D” or “F” may signal a need to avoid or sell high if there’s hype around them.
Specifically in dynasty leagues, where managers build teams for long-term success, this project can help identify young QBs with growth potential versus those who may not pan out.
I plan to release the first version around the middle of the season, roughly around week 8. This version will include some data on the rookie QB class. At the end of the season, I will release another version recapping this rookie class. Additionally, once a QB reaches 22 starts, they will receive their own breakdown.