Travis The Tank Engine
When you flip back through the history pages of the NFL, you can easily see distinct trends and eras of football. Personally, being born in the early 90s, my understanding of football didn't begin to take shape until the early 2000s. During this time, I witnessed the emergence of great running backs such as Sean Alexander, Tiki Barber, Jerome Bettis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, and many others. It was an era when teams relied on true workhorse running backs.
We are currently in the 2020s, where air raid offenses with exceptional quarterbacks, wide receivers, and pass-catching tight ends are prevalent. As a result, the traditional workhorse running back is becoming less common. NFL teams are now focused on rotating players during games to keep them healthy, making backfields more complex than ever before. Nevertheless, some workhorse running backs remain, such as Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and potentially rookie standout Bijan Robinson. These players are now the exception rather than the norm.
As the NFL changes, so does the fantasy landscape, and deciphering NFL backfields has become the newest challenge for fantasy players. The up-and-coming Jacksonville Jaguars are no exception. I have been pondering the possibility of newly drafted rookie Tank Bigsby cutting into the league's most efficient RB last season, Travis Etienne's, workload. And I believe I finally have the answer. Travis Etienne is the Jaguars running back you want...for now.
The Jaguars RB Conundrum
Travis Etienne was arguably the most efficient rusher in the league in 2022. Despite the Jaguars having the 30th-ranked run-blocking unit according to PFF last season, he was among the league's best (min 100 attempts) in RYOE, YCO/A, MTF, breakaway runs, YPC, and total yards created. Additionally, Etienne ranked 20th in WOPP/G with 15.68.
Etienne's biggest weakness lies in the receiving game. It's worth noting that targeting the running back position hasn't been a top priority in Doug Pederson's offenses. Pederson took over as head coach of the Eagles in 2016, and since then, his team's offense has ranked 8th, 19th, 16th, 11th, 28th, and 14th in targets to running backs. Furthermore, in the past two seasons, Trevor Lawrence ranked 26th in targets running backs. A play caller who historically targets RBs around the league average and a QB who checks the ball down infrequently can potentially put a cap on Etienne's fantasy ceiling.
Etienne also doesn't possess a creative route tree. Last season there were 27 RBs with a Y/RR of 1.00+ (min 30 targets), and Etienne ranked 24th out of 27 with an ADOT of -0.5. Based on the numbers, he isn't being used in the passing game outside of RB screens.
Despite everything, it's worth noting that Etienne had 43 targets last season, which is the 4th highest for a running back in a Pederson offense. In past seasons, Darren Sproles saw 71 targets in 2016, Miles Sanders saw 63 in 2019, and Sanders saw 52 in 2020. Last year, 17 running backs were targeted 50 or more times. Of those 17, 14 were the RB1 for their respective team, and all 14 scored 13+ points per game. If Etienne can increase his total targets (even minimally) within this Jaguars' offense, he has the upside of a mid-range RB1.
As we prepare for the upcoming 2023 season, the Jaguars' staff strongly believes that Etienne can build off of his 2022 season. Denny Carter, a writer for NBC Sports, recently interviewed Jaguars reporter John Shipley, who shared his thoughts on the matter. Here is a snippet from their conversation:
"Jaguars Report's Shipley told Rotoworld in June that third-round pick Tank Bigsby doesn't represent a real threat to Travis Etienne's role as Jacksonville's primary rusher. Shipley said there's a sense among Jaguars coaches that Etienne left a lot of production on the field by missing running lanes in 2022 (it might have something to do with the Jaguars being among the three worst run-blocking offensive lines, per Pro Football Focus). He still ended up with 1,125 rushing yards, the ninth most in the NFL. "That's probably the lower outcome of what he can do," Shipley said."
Currently, it appears that the Jaguars' third-round pick from April, Tank Bigsby, is not a threat to Travis Etienne's job in 2023. Etienne had an opportunity share of 60.1% in 2022, and I expect that number to hold.
This prompts the question of how to handle Tank Bigsby.
As a prospect, Bigsby meets many of the criteria we look for in terms of predictive metrics. Only five running backs who meet the following criteria have been drafted on day 1 or 2 since 2016: a reception market share of at least 10%, a yards per team play of 1.4 or higher, a missed tackle forced per touch of at least 0.20, and were an early declare. Those five RBs are Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Leonard Fournette. There were 4 RBs in the 2023 class who also meet these criteria; Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Devon Achane, and Tank Bigsby. Of the nine RBs listed, Bigsby is the only RB that wasn't drafted to be the presumptive starter (and maybe Achane). Although Bigsby profiles as a high-level fantasy RB, we'll need to exercise some patience with him.
Looking back over the last five seasons, Doug Pederson's RB2 has averaged 100.68 fantasy points (6.29 PPG over 16 games) with an average finish of RB48. During a recent episode of the Fantasy Points podcast discussing the Jaguars' 2023 outlook, beat reporter John Shipley shared his thoughts on Bigsby;
"I think you'll see him (Bigsby) used not in a rotation, because Etienne is the clear number one back, but he'll get some series now and then but I really hesitate to say that he's automatically going to see that many snaps, that many touches, or even be the goal line guy."
Etienne will get the first crack at the goal line duties again this season, but if he struggles to convert early on like he did last year, Bigsby is undoubtedly capable of taking that job. During Bigsby's final season at Auburn, he converted 5 out of 11 carries inside the 9-yard line into touchdowns.
Over the next several months, the Jaguars will have to decide what to do with Travis Etienne after the 2023 season. If they choose to exercise his fifth-year option, he will receive 5.994M in 2025. However, if he achieves a pro-bowl selection this year, that amount will increase to 8.429M. It's worth noting that during Doug Pederson's coaching tenure, only Carson Wentz had his fifth-year option exercised. Additionally, Pederson's offensive strategies don't heavily feature running backs, which makes it unlikely that Etienne's option will be exercised. This likely means that 2024 will be his final year in Jacksonville. Furthermore, the team has several core players who will need significant contract extensions in the next two years, such as Josh Allen, Calvin Ridley, Trevor Lawrence, Andre Cisco, Tyson Campbell, and Walker Little.
In 2025, Tank Bigsby will likely take over the starting RB job, which would be his age 23/24 season. Due to the RB limitations of the offensive scheme, his ceiling is not higher than that of Etienne. However, if he becomes the Jaguar's RB1, he should be treated as a mid-range RB1 with the floor of a mid-range RB2.
Prospect Model
Since 2016, I have graded 7 RBs as 'Super-Nova' prospects (tier 1).
Excluding the rookie Bijan Robinson, 5/6 RBs have posted at least one 18+ PPG season. Etienne is the only running back who has yet to reach that milestone.
Tank Bigsby graded out as a 'Starter' prospect (tier 3).
22% of these RBs have produced at least one 18+ PPG season, and 50% have produced at least one 13+ PPG season.